Published April 2008
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
1. Exceptionally strengthened, Lula is a highly important electoral backer, not only for this year’s elections but especially for 2010. For this reason, the opposition will continue to insist on a strategy targeted at weakening him. However, with limited ammunition at the moment, it depends on the occurrence of the unthinkable.
2. In light of this, dialogue between the government and the opposition tends to continue difficult. Prestiged by public opinion, Lula will tend to continue to “buldoze” his political adversaries.
3. Without an easy majority in the Senate, and a highly physiological base in the House, the consequence would be enormous difficulty for the government to advance consistently with the approval of issues of interest.
The most recent CNI/Ibope government assessment survey, confirmed by Datafolha, indicates that President Lula has achieved extremely high popularity parameters. According to Ibope, 51% of those interviewed assessed the government as excellent/good in December last year. Today this number is 58%. The bad\terrible rating receded from 17% to 11% and the regular rating remained practically constant (oscillating from 31% to 30%).
Approval of the president also significantly improved, going from 65% to 73%. Disapproval plummeted from 30% to 22%. To get an idea of the most current good performance, in March 2003, only three months after having taken office his approval was 75%. The government’s average rating, on a scale from zero to 10, reached 7.1, the highest rating since the president took office in the PlanaltoPalace (2003). Since April last year, confidence in the president stabilized around 60%. Today that number is 68%. The best percentage was achieved in June 2003, when it was at 76%. The explanation for the currently favorable situation is the good performance of the economy, with growing credit offer and the success of social programs (Family Grant).
Exceptionally strengthened, Lula is a highly important electoral backer, not only for this year’s elections but especially for 2010. For this reason, the opposition will continue to insist on a strategy targeted at weakening him. However, with limited ammunition at the moment, it depends on the occurrence of the unthinkable. The president has even managed to neutralize scandals provoked by allegations of corruption, which have fallen like a waterfall upon his administration. The last two – undue use of corporate credit cards and the preparation of a dossier containing alleged irregular expenditure by the FHC administration – did not shake his reputation as a good leader.
In light of this, dialogue between the government and the opposition tends to continue difficult. Prestiged by public opinion, Lula will tend to continue to “buldoze” his political adversaries. Another bonus from this unprecedented popularity is freedom to choose his successor, a task which today could even give preference to the PT, in benefit of that name with which he sympathizes, in an eventual egress from the allied base, as a form of broadening the candidate’s electoral chances.
However, without an easy majority in the Senate, and a highly physiological base in the House, the consequence would be enormous difficulty for the government to advance consistently with the approval of issues of interest. In conclusion, an enormous waste for someone experiencing such a favorable moment.
This analysis was produced by Thiago de Aragao, Murillo de Aragao, Cristiano Noronha, Jose Negreiros and Romulo Osorio of Arko Advice.
